FLDS Children Dying in Droves - Debunked

Which Circle is Larger:  A or B?

It's a trick question.  Both circles are exactly the same diameter - they're the same size.  Flora Jessop and her supporters give you a piece of information but present it in such a way they can convince you it's something it is not- much bigger than it is.  Isn't it odd that she makes allegations about "large numbers" of this or that going on in the FLDS but then never follows it up with, "Compared to the national average ...."  Why won't she let you see how her numbers compare to national averages?  ARE the FLDS numbers high?  How much higher than normal?

She doesn't follow up with the logical rest of the puzzle because it would ruin the illusion!

The rate of death among American 1-24 year olds measured by the National Center for Health l is 158.40/100,000 per year.  This is for accidental deaths of any kind; car accidents, drowning, etc.

K Dee Ignatin stated 25% of the graves were children who died between years of 1990-2003.  She cleverly hinted that FLDS kids have a lot of accidents - but she included nearly 100 infants who were either stillborn or died from natural causes in her number.  Pretty tricky and got a lot of people riled up for sure.  Twenty five percent would mean there would be 99.5 graves in the graveyard.  I combed through the burial records and found 34 graves for the 1-24 age range  measured in the national rates where the deaths occurred between 1990 and 2003.  Applying these numbers to the formula to come up with a per/100,000 figure to compare to the national average the rate of deaths within this polygamist community is 35.28/100,000.

National Death Rate among 1-24 year olds:   158.40
FLDS Death Rate among 1-24 year olds:  35.28

Now doesn't that change the way this whole issue looks when you add a comparison?  See how easy that was!

Kids between the ages of 1-24 in this polygamist community are four times LESS likely to die in an accident than the rest of the population of the United States in this age group.

I've addressed the baby graves in another post that compares those numbers to national averages of baby deaths.  The only thing shocking about the results is that Flora and K Dee have been getting away with this for so long without anybody challenging their information.

Unusually High Still-Born Rate for FLDS: Debunked

Proof that Flora Jessop & K Dee Ignatin's accusation of abnormally high numbers of still-born babies is completely false.

Flora Jessop and K. Dee Ignatin have trampled and desecrated FLDS grave yards in their quest to show supporters that the FLDS have a shockingly high number of miscarriages and still-births and allege this is due to incest.  Once again they have no real evidence that the numbers are higher than the rest of the population.  K Dee posted copies of grave records on a blog and shops them around to various news outlets as proof.  They certainly are inflammatory but they don't prove anything unless they are compared to what is considered normal.  Has anybody looked at these records and analyzed them or compared them to the national average?

I counted 85 babies who were either noted as still-born, died at birth or lived less than a day.  We don't know if those babies were beyond 20 weeks gestation which would qualify them as still-born or if they were under 20 weeks and classified as miscarriages.  For the sake of this argument lets assume that all of the graves are stillborn's. This is the allegation Flora has made - there is an abnormally high number of stillborn babies; so we'll assume ALL of the babies are stillborn to give Flora a leg-up in her argument.

The total population of the Colorado City area from the census bureau is around 4,000 with 62% reporting they are married so that makes around 2,480 married adults.  Assuming half of them are women (which would be an ironic under-estimate since we're talking about polygamists) a minimum of 1,240 are married women.  Since we're testing Flora's argument we can assume they are all trying to get pregnant and there are at least two or three times the number of women as there are men.  So even if only 1/2 to 1/3 of them conceived we are still in good shape with our estimate of roughly 1,200 pregnancies.  If each of these women conceived statistically 12 stillbirths could normally be expected based on the information here:

Stillbirth is the death of an infant in-utero and past 20 completed gestational weeks. It can happen before or during the onset of labor and can happen to any woman. About 1 in 100 pregnancies will end with the death of a baby to stillbirth  

The burial records provided by Ignatin document graves from the 30's to 2003 spanning about 70 years.  There would have to be over 800 infant graves to equal what the secular medical community considers statistically normal for that span of time (12 per year for 70 years).  Years 1992 and 1996 of the burial records had the  highest number of stillbirths in a given year with 5 per year - less than half of the 12 per year than would statistically be expected  given the population of child-bearing women.

If there was evidence of over 800 graves in the baby cemetery we would have heard about it loudly and shrilly.  K Dee posted on the Sister Wives blog a photo of a baby cemetery she charmingly refers to as the "Junk Yard Cemetery".  They fret and whip people up over what turns out to be a normal number of infant graves for the population.

Do you think Flora and K Dee will be relieved to find out all their fretting over stillborn FLDS babies has been much ado about nothing?

Polygamy Causes Poverty? Debunked.

Flora Jessop and K Dee Ignation are anti-polygamy activists who assert that the high level of food stamps recipients in the polygamist towns of Colorado City and Hildale are caused by the practice of polygamy.  They do not cite any evidence to substantiate their claims, however.  Where do they get their information?  Nobody knows - I guess you just have to trust what they say.  And they do have a lot of people who just blindly accept what they say as true.  Frankly, I don't trust anybody that much and prefer to form my own opinions based on facts.  Citing independent evidence would seem to help solidify their position so the lack of any cited, independent, primary sourcing to substantiate their statements is a concern.

Opponents of polygamy claim that the practice actually causes poverty.  I hesitate to believe that.  You see, there are polygamists who are not FLDS or Mormon or even any religion.  They choose a polygamist lifestyle completely free of the threat of damnation if they don't.  Why would these people choose something that would inherently place them in poverty?  I decided to do some research on my own and see if areas where polygamy is practiced are pockets of extremely high welfare. 

Interactive Food Stamp Map by County

I found this great interactive map showing the entire country, broken down by county, and showing percentage of the population receiving food stamps.  I'm a visual person so I really like the map. 

What I found is that the areas where polygamy is open and rampant are not the populations that are receiving the highest percentage of food stamp assistance in their states or regions.  I noticed that the areas of Nevada and Utah that border with Mohave County in Arizona are actually on the very low end of food stamp recipients in those states.  Mohave County where Colorado City is located has a rate of 16%-25% receiving food stamps and are in company with most of the entire state of Oregon, Maine, Michigan, Georgia, Missouri, Kentucky, Louisiana, South Carolina and West Virginia. Mohave county isn't even the highest percent in Arizona!  

Just below the map you can sort data by state, by percentage increase in food stamp recipients, etc.  While numerous counties across the country were seeing increases in food stamp recipients at 200% and 300% Mohave county only saw an increase of 51% during the same period.  

What I found is the claim that polygamy creates poverty and leads to food stamp use is untrue.  The FLDS don't receive food stamps at a higher rate than many other areas of the country where polygamy is not practiced in large numbers.  Some areas where polygamy is widely practiced (Utah, Colorado, Nevada) actually have much lower rates of food stamp use than most of the rest of the country.